August is when political life in Brussels comes to a halt.
Commissioners, officials and lobbyists desert the city, hotel prices tumble, and the few remaining just hope nothing major - such as a disease outbreak - happen on their watch. This year most commissioners left with a sense that things had gone well
. The big things that had gone wrong - the collapse of the WTO negotiations and the Irish no vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum - were events beyond their control.
The WTO collapse meant July ended with a bang rather than a whimper. It will be September before any serious thought is given to the way ahead. It is now widely accepted that formal negotiations will be off the agenda until 2010 or 2011. This means the existing WTO rules remain in place. However if they believe a new WTO deal is unlikely major trading blocs, including the EU, may pursue bilateral trade deals, for example with Brazil as a growing agricultural superpower. Equally with the present Commission now into its final twelve months of existence, it may decide to leave this to the new Commission.
For now the important thing is that Europe - and more importantly the CAP - is safely out of the firing line. Trade commissioner, Peter Mandelson, certainly appeared disappointed that no deal had emerged, but he must be relieved that others are shouldering the blame. He is seen to have made a generous offer on agriculture. In reality it is just as well he was not forced to prove whether he could deliver this - but his performance at the WTO will have done his international job prospects no harm when his term as commissioner ends.
Mandelson is a skilled reader of politics and negotiations. It is tempting to conclude that when he made his offer he knew collapse was looming, and that his approach would ensure others and not Europe would be blamed. What is certain is that the talks are over, and for the first time since 2001 the Commission can return in September, knowing policies can be decided without having to take account of how they will play out in the WTO.
The health commissioner, Androulla Vassiliou, can also look back on a successful first few months in Brussels. She took over from Markos Kyprianou, who returned to Cyprus to become foreign minister. The new commissioner has stuck to her guns over the Brazilian beef issue, ensuring that her officials carrying out inspections are continuing to take a tough line. She has been under pressure to be more lenient, with pressure coming from both Brazil and European importers who are missing the competitive pressures of having Brazilian beef in the market. The fact that she did not change direction as a result of this pressure is encouraging.
Ms Vassiliou can also look back on the success of the vaccination campaign against bluetongue disease, which has dramatically reduced its incidence. Her challenge for the autumn is to tackle to continuing problem of ensuring science rather than politics guides decisions on genetically modified feed ingredients, but there are few signs of this logjam being broken. As a result the livestock industry will continue being squeezed by rising costs, while watching imports of products fed on the same GM ingredients coming into Europe with no restrictions.
For farm commissioner, Mariann Fischer Boel, it was a relatively easy run in to the August break. She faced no major issues this year, and her goal was to launch the formal proposals for the CAP health check and keep them on track until the autumn, when the real debate on their implementation will begin. She has succeeded, despite pressure from some member states, in keeping the core parts of the proposal alive, including her drive to increase milk quotas. It is almost certain the health check will be agreed by the end of the year. However the disappointment is that the debate is only about current policies. There is no focus on what will replace the present CAP in 2013. Mrs Fischer Boel has clearly decided to leave that to her successor. This is unfortunate, since the WTO vacuum we are now in is an ideal time for Europe to lay down markers about where it wants its agricultural policy to go, knowing others are no longer in a position to use the WTO negotiations to challenge this.
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