Following a strong start to the year, dairy commodity prices have remained relatively steady, despite record volumes of spring milk being produced across the UK.

Most processors held farm gate prices during April and May. As we move beyond the spring peak, volumes are expected to decline. With production also down across Europe and the US, both processors and farmers remain cautiously optimistic about pricing.

Milk volumes over the past two weeks have averaged 47.6 million litres per day - 3 million litres more than last year, and 5.4% above the long-term average. On ‘Peak Day’, 4 May, UK milk production reached 48.1 million litres. Great Britain’s daily average was 38.6 million litres, an increase of 2.2 million litres per day compared to last year.

Northern Ireland averaged 8.95 million litres per day-up 840,000 litres, or over 10%, year-on-year. In the Republic of Ireland, March milk volumes were 818.2 million litres, a rise of 61 million litres or over 8% compared to the previous year.

Following a strong start to the year, dairy commodity prices have remained relatively steady. Picture: Cliff Donaldson

From here, volumes are expected to decline. The speed of this drop will depend heavily on weather conditions, with soil moisture deficits continuing to rise. England received just 28.3 mm of rainfall in April-half the 1961–1990 long-term average. With a similar outlook across Europe, there is hope that the ongoing drought will quickly rein in milk volumes. However, this is far from guaranteed. In recent years, many farmers continued feeding well through prolonged dry spells, and with current milk prices holding, they may do so again.

What is likely to be affected is winter forage availability. While most have completed first cut silage, regrowth will be increasingly compromised if significant rainfall does not arrive soon.

The only real positives at present are the prospect of continued good weather and stable milk prices. These themes were echoed during a busy week at the Balmoral Show, where UFU dairy committee representatives met with Northern Ireland milk processors. Discussions focused on pricing, volume, contracts, and the Nutrient Action Programme (NAP). Like many farmers, processors expressed concern and uncertainty around the recent NAP announcements.

Dairy commodity update