Market prices for beef, sheep and pigs stay well above five-year average

In Ireland, prices fell back slightly at Easter following a sharp surge through March and early April which had happened despite a strong year-on-year kill increase. Cow prices have also seen a stronger-than-usual seasonal uplift in early 2025, staying closer to prime cattle prices than typical for the time of year – highlighting a tight manufacturing beef market.

Store cattle prices have firmed in line with the finished beef trade, though per-head values stabilised through April’s peak spring selling period. While the 2024 calf crop was smaller, auction volumes so far in 2025 have been slightly higher.

Defra figures show a more significant year-on-year fall in GB prime cattle slaughter in Q1 than deadweight price trends alone would suggest. However, this was partly offset by elevated heifer slaughter.

UK beef supply increased by 4% in 2024 without pulling prices down, highlighting strong demand. A tighter market balance seen in early 2025 – driven by lower domestic production, reduced net imports, and increased consumer spending – has underpinned firmer prices.

Data from BCMS in January suggests that Scottish cattle supplies are likely to tighten more significantly in the second half of 2025, as the pool of older cattle is worked through and smaller 2023–2024 calf crops feed into the market. Short term, slaughter availability may lift in May before easing over the summer. Longer term, declining herd numbers in 2024 point to reduced production into 2026 and beyond, raising concern given strong market signals and the growing population in both the UK and globally.

Sheep market: Increased hogget carryover, heavier carcases and softer demand added downward pressure to lamb prices in April. Still, prices remained historically firm – more than 10% above the five-year average at month’s end. Early May data indicates prices have fallen by around 10% for hoggets and 5% for new season lambs.

Auction throughput in Scotland was up 3% in the first third of 2025 versus a year earlier. A later Easter drove a spike in April numbers, which have since fallen back but remain well above 2024 levels. Throughput is expected to decline seasonally through May and June, though it may continue tracking ahead of last year.

Retail sales data from Kantar shows lamb spending declined over winter, compared with a strong 2023/24 period, as higher retail prices weighed on demand. However, Eid al-Adha moving earlier this year (6–10 June) could provide a short-term demand boost.

France continues to offer attractive wholesale pricing for imported lamb, supporting UK exports. Though volumes fell year-on-year in early 2025, they increased as a share of domestic production. Imports of Australian and New Zealand lamb surged to a seven-year high in the first two months of 2025, helped by competitive pricing – even amid reduced NZ production and a nearing cyclical peak in Australia.

Pig market: Pig prices have followed a normal seasonal trend in 2025, inching higher since February as slaughter availability dropped back from winter peaks. After an unusual downwards trend in spring/summer 2024, the slight uptick in recent weeks has seen the year-on-year decline narrow, and we could see annual increases return by summer if seasonal trends continue. Prices remain 15–20% above the five-year average and slightly above estimated production costs.

Defra data shows a 4.5% increase in GB pig slaughter in Q1, building on a 2% rise in 2024. This aligns with December census results showing more slaughter pigs in England. Larger carcase weights further increased production. However, total kills are still below the five-year average.

Scottish pig numbers sent for slaughter fell slightly in Q1 2025, but the Scottish abattoir kill rose nearly 6% year-on-year, indicating strong market conditions. After a March dip, weekly abattoir kills rebounded in April.

UK pigmeat supply rose 4% in 2024 and has expanded further in early 2025, with production up and import/export volumes largely steady. This, alongside stable prices, points to underlying demand strength. Although EU pig prices rose faster than GB’s this spring, they remained 15–20% lower in April and did not pull GB prices down. The USDA now forecasts stable global pigmeat supply in 2025, with Chinese output matching 2024 levels. As major pork suppliers to China, the UK and EU could benefit if US pork shipments to China drop.

Economic outlook: Commodity prices remain high relative to pre-Covid levels, sustaining cost pressures for red meat businesses. However, a weaker US dollar could ease input costs later in the year. Average earnings growth of 5–6% over winter has outpaced inflation, supporting disposable incomes.

Meat retail performance remains firm, with rising spending offset by accelerating inflation. Lamb has made a softer start to the year following a strong 2024, with some signs of consumer resistance to further price hikes.

While business surveys indicate weak demand and some job cuts in the private sector, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – the UK’s official national statistics body – shows employment levels remain steady, with little sign of a slowdown in pay growth. Consumer confidence dipped in April amid financial market volatility and broader economic concerns, though views on personal finances remain more balanced.

Read the full report here - https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/quality-meat-scotland/documents/QMS-market-update-Feb-to-Apr-2025.pdf