MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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17 April 2018

Global grain markets overall saw little movement last week (6 April – 13 April).

Chicago wheat futures climbed early in the week due to a slow start to spring wheat planting, before falling back by the end of the week. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat futures also climbed before falling back by the end of the week. For maize, South America continues to be watched as the revised Brazilian production forecast is unlikely to cover the fall in Argentina’s production.

Global oilseed markets were mixed last week (Friday-Friday). Chicago soyabean futures climbed during the week (6-13 April) as a result of reduced production forecasts for Argentina. Meanwhile, Paris rapeseed futures fell last week as stocks increased with increased crush competition from soyabeans.

In Argentina, both the latest Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) and the USDA reports show sizable downward revisions for maize month on month, reflecting the challenging Argentinian weather. BAGE and the USDA now forecast 32Mt and 33Mt respectively. Additionally, with the Brazilian maize crop forecast to be 9.22Mt lower year on year, the outlook for South American maize could be tight.

The USDA again revised its forecast for the Argentina 2017/18 soyabean crop down, which is now pegged at 40Mt. This is a 14.9% drop from its March forecast and the smallest crop since 2008/09. The latest BAGE estimate is lower still, estimated at 38Mt.

Meanwhile, both Conab and the USDA increased their soyabean production forecasts for Brazil (10 April). However, it doesn’t appear that this will be enough to offset the cuts for Argentina.

In the EU, rapeseed yields could fall short of early predictions according to Oil World (www.oilworld.biz). Sub-optimal growing conditions in Northern Germany and Poland, along with disease risk in western France may result in production coming in lower than currently expected. The 2018 EU rapeseed crops is currently pegged at 22.2Mt, a three-year high.