MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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13 June 2018

There were mixed movements in global grain futures last week with maize futures falling sharply on favourable outlooks for the US maize crop.

Meanwhile, global wheat futures fell at the start of the week before recovering lost ground on the back of forecast production cuts across the Black Sea region.

The lastest USDA supply and demand estimates have forecast 2018/19 global wheat production to fall 3.1Mt from the May report to 744.7Mt. However, global 2018/19 ending stocks have been revised up 1.8Mt from May estimates to 266.2Mt, as a result of reduced 2018/19 consumption (-3Mt) and increased 2017/18 ending stocks (+1.9Mt).

Both SovEcon and IKAR cut forecasts for the 2018 /19 Russian grain crop last week, down to 119.6Mt and 114.7Mt respectively. SovEcon cut its forecast for wheat production by 5% to 73.1Mt whilst IKAR’s figure was revised down 3% to 71.5Mt. Yesterdays WASDE release followed this trend with the USDA revising its estimate for 2018/19 Russian wheat production to 68.5Mt. This was a 3.5Mt reduction from its May estimates and a 19% decline from 2017/18.

The Ukrainian state hydro-metrological centre stated last week that the 2018/19 Ukrainian wheat production could come in 15-30% below original forecasts, due to severe drought in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.

Rainfall last week has reportedly provided some relief to wheat crops in Western Australia, a key exporting region which provides around 50% of Australia’s wheat output. Eastern regions, which mainly supply the domestic market, are still suffering from a lack of rain.

Coceral cut its forecasts for 2018 EU soft wheat and maize production due to ongoing dry weather in much of central and eastern Europe.

The forecast for soft wheat production is down by 2.7Mt from its March forecast, to 138.8Mt (141.6Mt in 2017).

Its forecast for maize production, while up from 59.9Mt in 2017, was cut 1.5Mt to 60.3Mt. Barley production was predicted to increase 0.5Mt, from its March forecast, to 60.8Mt (58.1Mt in 2017).

Global oilseeds markets declined last week with reports of positive weather in the US putting a dampener on Chicago soyabean futures. Meanwhile, Paris rapeseed futures also declined. This was due to a combination of pressure feeding through from soyabean markets and a lack of demand as crushers switched to soyabeans on the continent.