MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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25 July 2018

As many European and Black sea countries are continuing to experience prolonged dry weather, leading to crop concerns, markets gained support last week (16-20 July).

The Nov-18 UK wheat futures contract gained £6.00/t over the week (Friday-Friday) closing at £175.50/t on Friday 20 July. Paris milling wheat futures also gained, the Dec-18 contract up €7.75/t over the week closing at €193.25/t on Friday 20 July, a new contract high.

The sweltering heat and dryness in the northern parts of Europe continued to spark concerns for supplies of spring malting barley. The French agency Stratégie Grains now anticipates no surplus spring malting barley in the EU in 2018/19, when a notable surplus was previously expected.

The German farming association DBV also forecast German barley production to be 1.7Mt lower year on year at 7.3Mt in 2018/9, and expects wheat production to also be adversely affected.

Soft wheat production in France is forecast to fall to 34.17Mt in 2018/18, down 6.5 percent from last year according to the consultancy Agritel on Friday 20 July. Heavy rain throughout winter and then during spring hurt crops across France, particularly in the west, followed by the recent prolonged dry weather.

Oilseeds markets rose last week as warm and dry weather affects crops in Europe and the US. US soyabean export sales and concerns over the dry conditions contributed to a rise in US soyabean futures. However, rises were likely capped by the ongoing uncertainty around the US-China trade dispute. In Europe, rapeseed futures rose as a result of markets anticipating yield losses on the back of prolonged hot and dry weather.

The German farm association DBV reported that drought in Germany has brought an early start to the winter rapeseed harvest. However, the farm association did not give an indication of the overall size of the crop but suggested that initial results point to significant yield losses in winter rapeseed.