MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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29th August 2018

The good condition and ahead of average progress of US maize as highlighted by the US Pro Farmer tour contributed to a bearish tone in global grain markets (Friday-Friday) this was further confirmed by the latest USDA crop progress report. European markets also declined, following the US market sentiment.

The progress of the US maize crop is ahead of previous years, for the week ending 26th August. The rapid progress means that US maize will likely be harvested earlier, adding to the availability of maize in the near term.

Global maize production was increased by 12Mt from its July estimate by the International Grains Council (IGC). Maize production is now estimated by the IGC at 1,064Mt. Although the maize production estimate has increased, global supplies still look set to be tighter than last year due to increased consumption.

The German Farmers Association DBV has revised its estimate of 2018 German grain production to 35.6Mt, 0.4Mt below the organisation’s last estimate on 1st August. The DBV’s final harvest report places German grain production 26% below the five year average and the lowest level since 1993.

Global oilseed markets declined last week with Chicago soyabean futures falling on expectations of a bumper US crop, while US-China trade tensions remained high. Meanwhile, European rapeseed markets declined with a strengthening euro partly depressing prices as pressure fed through from the soyabean markets.

The US analytics firm Pro Farmer estimated 2018/19 US soyabean production at 127.46Mt, on Friday. This comes in around 2.65Mt above current the current estimate from the USDA. Rains have reportedly benefitted the crop in some regions and the common expectation at this point is for a bumper harvest this year.