MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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09 October 2018

Grain markets (Nov/Dec-18) gained last week. Chicago wheat futures were lifted by potential Russian export challenges, closing the week up and reversing much of the previous week’s loss.

European wheat futures also gained last week. UK wheat futures gained additional support from official supply and demand data and an increased value of sterling.

2018 UK wheat production was estimated at 14.1Mt in the first official Defra estimate. Barley production was estimated to be down 7.9% year on year at 6.6Mt.

Provisional production estimates were also released last week for Scotland, where spring barley was estimated at 1.33Mt.

Scottish wheat production was estimated at 0.8Mt, down 9% year on year.

Continued dry weather has continued to plague Australian crops during their spring, a key period for determining yields. Rainfall recorded in September was 33% down on average.

Additionally, parts of Western Australia and Victoria suffered frosts, potentially damaging crops which had reportedly been faring well in the West of the country.

Weather concerns in North America created a bullish tone to oilseeds markets last week. Heavy rain has been delaying the US soyabean harvest in the Midwest causing nearby futures to reach a six week high.

Additional market support was provided by snow and rains across key canola (rapeseed) growing regions in Canada, which have also delayed harvest. In Europe, rapeseed markets

were influenced by the rises observed across the Atlantic in addition to strong biodiesel demand and increasing crude oil prices.