12 February 2019
Global wheat markets declined last week (1 Feb- 8 Feb).
The newly published USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) covering US exports during the government shutdown, came out on Friday 8 February. The figures fell short of expectations, weakening US old crop wheat markets slightly.
UK markets also moved slightly lower in the week as the value of the pound stabilised. They received some support following the release of Defra Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) area data. While AHDB has taken an initial look at this, further updates on the potential impact on the domestic market will be published later this week.
Planting figures for the 2019/20 US winter wheat crop area were estimated to be down 4% on 2018, and the second lowest on record. The reduced US winter wheat area could potentially impact the US exportable surplus for 2019/20. This could place an increased importance on Russian and Black Sea wheat for global pricing.
Overall little changed in oilseed markets last week. The release of awaited USDA information was mostly in line with trade estimates, and US – China trade negotiations remain ongoing. Both US soyabean markets and Paris rapeseed markets moved sideways, closing the week marginally down.
UK delivered rapeseed prices also fell slightly across the week, following the direction of Paris rapeseed futures as the value of the pound has been less volatile. May delivery to Erith was down £1.00/t Friday – Friday, quoted at £336.00/t. Meanwhile the harvest price fell £2.00/t, quoted at £320.50/t.
The condition of winter crops remained unchanged. Currency fluctuations will continue to be a predominant driving factor for UK markets, as well as wider influences from the vegetable oil complex.