MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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26 March 2019

Global markets continued to climb last week (15 March - 22 March).

However, the speed of the price recovery slowed throughout the week with Paris milling wheat futures (May-19) climbing just €0.25/t.

UK feed wheat futures (May-19) were buoyed by a weakening of sterling closing £2.00/t higher on the week.The pound lost half a percent of its value against the euro across the week amid continued Brexit uncertainty.

New crop prospects remain little changed from previous weeks. However, the US market is being supported by bullish sentiment following flooding from heavy rainfall and melting snow in the US. The fear is that the weather will delay and disrupt spring planting which will start in April.

The forecast for the next two weeks sees continued showers (albeit lighter than the previous two weeks). It is too early to determine the final impact and the market is being driven by sentiment rather than fact.

Short term outlooks in the US and EU oilseed markets changed little this week, with prices drifting as a result. Chicago soyabean futures moved slightly lower while Paris rapeseed and domestic delivered rapeseed prices moved higher over the week.

Weaker sterling continues to be a key driver in domestic markets, with UK delivered rapeseed (Erith, April-19) quoted up £4.50/t this week at £315.00/t.

The longer term prospect of an accumulation in Canadian canola stocks has the potential to pressure physical markets moving into the new season but in the short term impacts are likely to be limited.