MI Northern Ireland Market Report

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30 April 2019

Grains

- UK feed wheat futures (May-19) spiked to £166.00/t on Friday, up £5.00/t from Tuesday. This was likely a result of UK futures trade recording the third lowest volume of trade this year on Thursday. Physical markets diverged from Futures with a downward trend week on week (Thursday – Thursday).

- Imported feed wheat into Belfast was quoted at £177.00/t for May delivery. Delivered feed wheat to Belfast was quoted at £183.00/t for May delivery.

- The International Grains Council (IGC) have suggested Russia and Ukraine are still expecting decent wheat harvests in 2019. On Thursday the IGC increased its wheat production forecast for Russia from 77.1Mt to 79.5Mt, with recent weather providing favourable conditions.

- Overall the maize market is neutral, with Chicago maize futures (Dec-19) closing $0.39/t up on Friday compared to Tuesday. While US planting concerns could prove supportive, above expectations South American harvest is neutralising the market.

- Planting in Midwest US is being hindered by bad weather. More rain and snow are forecast this week, which are increasing delay concerns.

Oilseeds

- Oilseed markets moved in different directions last week. Paris rapeseed futures pushed higher on a tighter supply outlook. The opposite is true for soyabeans, with ample supplies continuing to push prices down.

- European rapeseed markets ended last week firmer. Analysis firm Stratégie Grains cut its estimate of EU rapeseed production by 470Kt, to 18.9Mt. The biggest challenges are seen for France (down 90Kt), Hungary (down 80Kt) and Romania (280Kt). Weather will remain a key watch point for EU crops.

- The cuts to rapeseed production forecasts are bullish for EU markets, but there are still one or two factors which may cap gains.

- According to Statistics Canada, the Canadian area planted to canola is forecast to be down, at 8.62Mha. The latest forecast is a 6.6% fall on the year, but down just 1.6% on the five year average.

- Due to the continued dispute between Canada and China, global rapeseed stocks are expected to reach new highs this season.

- Rapeseed and palm oil markets closed lower last week on ample stocks, as well as crude oil moving lower. In the longer term, vegetable oil prices are seen rising with a tightness expected on new crop according to Oilworld (www.Oilworld.biz).