25 June 2019
(Week ending 21 June):
- Feed Barley, delivered to Belfast (spot) up £1.50/t, at £169.00/t
- Feed Barley, imported to Belfast (spot) up £3.00/t, at £163.00/t
- Feed Wheat, delivered to Belfast (spot) up £0.50/t, at £184.00/t
- Feed Wheat, imported to Belfast (spot) up £2.00/t, at £179.00/t
Neutral - Bearish - Global crops look largely healthy. Production amongst the major exporters is forecast at the second highest level on record, reducing the tight stock position from 2018/19.
- Chicago grain prices fell back last week following recent rises. Upward pressure from slow maize plantings in the US abated with improved weather for some states. However, uncertainty over crop losses as a result of the weather remains a concern. The market is waiting on some clarity from the USDA acreage report, released on 28 June. That said, the uncertainty will be far from gone.
- Elsewhere global crop conditions continue to look largely healthy. The USDA crop health indices show improved conditions year-on-year for most major exporting grain producers. If conditions remain favourable then large wheat crops are expected.
- Dryness in Australia and parts of Russia and Canada will remain watch points in the short term, especially given IKAR and SovEcon cut their forecasts for Russian grain exports last week.
- Direction in the UK physical market was mixed last week, with milling wheat for July delivery firming marginally into both Northamptonshire and the North West. Feed wheat prices fell back last week with recent rainfall seen as positive for crop development. The old-crop market is continuing to cool down as we move towards the new-crop.
- Rainfall over the past fortnight was beneficial for many (not all). Further rainfall is expected this week, which combined with warm weather could raise disease concerns. However, sunny, warm weather is expected at the end of the week aiding crop development.
(Week ending 21 June)
• Oilseed Rape, delivered to Erith (Jun-19) is up £0.50/t, at £323.50/t
• Rapemeal (34%), ex-mill Erith (Jun-19) is down £3.00/t, at £185.00/t
Neutral - Bearish - Although 2019 EU rapeseed production is down year-on-year the global supply is still heavy. Ukraine, Canada and Australia are set for decent 2019 crops although dryness concerns are arising.
- Delivered oilseed rape prices have increased slightly across the board for June and harvest delivery. This is similar to the increase seen in the European futures market which is being driven somewhat by US soyabean futures.
- Due to reduced rapeseed area and yield concerns the UK will be in a rapeseed deficit, as will the EU which could potentially add some support to domestic prices.
However, with Ukraine, Canada and Australia, all key suppliers of rapeseed to the UK, expecting decent crops there is ample opportunity for supply. Long term prices will likely remain pressured by the wider global availability.
- Adding to already high stocks, 2019 Canadian rapeseed production is forecast at the second highest on record at 21.1Mt.
Although there has been some dryness concerns, key regions received rainfall last week which should assist crop development.