Northern Ireland weekly market report: 09 November 2026

​09 November 2026

Grains

UK feed wheat followed Paris milling wheat futures lower last week, with May-2027 UK feed wheat falling 1.9%. The May-2027 contract closed at £198.75/t, losing £3.75/t week-on-week. Prices have continued below the 20-day moving average and momentum indicators have weakened again. This suggests near-term downside pressure, unless new information comes forward.

The market has now entered oversold territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 12 on Friday, reflecting the limited momentum.

Market drivers

Global grain markets fell across the week, with Paris milling wheat futures (May-27) down 2.5%. Chicago maize and wheat (May-27) were down 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

Markets were pressured by improving global supply prospects, US harvest progress, falling crude oil prices, and hopes of Russia–Ukraine peace talks. These outweighed support from continued Black Sea export disruption.

Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea remain a key watchpoint. Strikes on merchant shipping are continuing to disrupt Russian and Ukrainian seaborne grain exports. The upcoming peace talks on the 10-11 November offer some hope of a resumption of Black Sea shipments, but its outcome remains a key watchpoint.

With the US export demand falling behind last year’s pace, a new US wheat and sorghum sales agreement with Chinese buyers gave some support. That said, uncertainty over future Chinese demand remains.

With the US maize harvest reported 74% complete by 2 November, the weather risk premium for the harvest has almost fully unwound. With favourable weather last week, the crop progress report coming out tonight will likely show the harvest nearing completion. Dry weather is also forecast for the coming seven days in key maize producing states.

Traders are adjusting positions ahead of the USDA's World Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE, report on Tuesday 10 November. After errors in its September maize data, the USDA will use an artificial intelligence tool to check this report, which may give the market more confidence in the figures. Analysts expect a slight cut to the US maize production estimate, but the expected crop would still be the second largest on record.

However, private estimates show there is still uncertainty over the final crop size. StoneX has raised its US maize yield and production forecasts. Either way, ample supply is likely to keep limiting any upside in the near term.

Rapeseed

Paris rapeseed futures fell sharply over the week, dropping below key technical support levels and ending under £440/t. In £ per tonne, the May-2027 contract lost 6%.

Continued pressure from weakness across the wider oilseed complex and expectations of ample global supplies weighed on prices.

Since the start of October, sterling has strengthened against the euro. This has added further pressure to UK rapeseed values by lowering the sterling-equivalent value of Paris rapeseed futures.

Market drivers

Oilseed markets came under pressure over the past week. They were driven primarily by ongoing US soyabean harvest progress, weakness in crude oil markets and Brazilian soyabean planting progress.

Chicago soyabean futures for May-2027 fell 3.6%. May-2027 Paris rapeseed futures were down 5.6%, and Winnipeg canola futures were down 4.0%.

Soyabeans hit a 12-week low last week as US harvest pressure continues to weigh on the oilseed complex. 88% of the US soyabean harvest was complete by 1 November, ahead of the five-year average. Further updates are expected this evening (21:00 GMT) in the USDA crop progress report. With this US crop finishing up market attention will soon switch to South American supplies.

At the end of last week, it was reported that Brazil's 2026 soybean planting reached 65% of the intended area by 6 November. This was ahead of the 58% planted at the same point last year, according to Patria Agronegocios. Faster planting progress supports expectations for another large Brazilian soybean crop but will also aid the second maize crop plantings at the start of 2027.

The USDA's Beijing attaché forecasts China's 2026/27 soybean imports at 110 Mt, 5 Mt below the USDA's official estimate of 115 Mt. The lower forecast reflects differing expectations for Chinese demand, although China is still expected to remain the world's largest soybean importer.

Nearby Brent crude oil weakened over the week, with the contract closing the week at $98.32/barrel. This is down $15.11/barrel Friday to Friday.

Concerns over supply disruptions have eased.