So how has Brexit really impacted on agriculture in Northern Ireland up to this point?

And I make this point for two reasons: the total lack of interest shown by the UK government in production agriculture, post Brexit, and the fact that the EU continues to actively support its farmers in a more than meaningful way.

So let’s start with a quick overview of matters that have taken place closest to home over the past three years.

First-up were the very positive claims made by successive farm ministers in Northern Ireland to the effect that the current single payment support mechanism had been retained until the end of the current parliament.

However, the same people – plus our farming leaders – seemed to conveniently overlook the fact that no provision was made for a new rural development programme which, under the old Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), delivered £millions into farm businesses and rural areas across Northern Ireland.

Yes there was a time lag, post Brexit, which would allow for unspent monies - committed under the last Rural Development/Tier 2 measures – to be spent. But this ‘period of overlap’ is about to end.

I have not heard one local politician or farming representative talk about the need for new rural development measures and and an appropriate funding mechanism since the Brexit deal was signed.

In my opinion, this is a deeply worrying state of affairs.

But let’s stick with the current money trail for a little while longer. The best that we can hope for, in terms of keeping the support monies currently on-offer, is the retention of the status quo until the middle – or end - of 2024.

All of this is premised on the current Westminster parliament running its full course. So in real terms we are talking about a window of opportunity for local farmers that will last, at best, for the next 18 months.

This is a blink in time relative to the length of a normal farming cycle.

And what will happen once the next Westminster parliamentary session gets underway?

There is no guarantee that Northern Ireland will be able to hold on to its current farm support budget.

And, as I referenced above, will there be a commitment from London to future proof a new rural development programme in Northern Ireland or any other part of the UK for that matter?

One of the great perceived strengths identified by Brexiteers from the get-go was the freedom that leaving the EU would deliver in terms of the UK agreeing its own trade deals with the rest of the world?

So how’s all of that working out? Well, shock of horrors, London has used its newly gained sovereignty to ally with a selection of the world’s agri-food super powers.

Prospective trade deals with the likes of New Zealand, Australia and Canada have been a common thread in the narratives espoused by the main stream press throughout the UK over the past couple of years.

And, of course, all of this has been encouraged by the public utterances of British trade ministers.

And, no doubt, the likes of Brazil – the world’s largest producer of every food category that is available on this planet – will become a direct target for British government representatives in the not too distant future.

The UK’s ardent desire to secure a free trade deal with the United States is also very obvious.

However, the not so insignificant matter of the Northern Ireland Protocol is getting in the way of that, for the moment. But more of that anon!

Meanwhile, very little has been written or said about the potentially harmful impact such trade deals could have on agriculture across the UK - including here in Northern Ireland.

Let’s be clear about this, a free trade agreement reached between the UK and Brazil would sound the death knell for the local beef industry! It really is that black and white.

Brazil is a major agricultural and industrial power, and the strongest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean.

It is the fourth largest agricultural producing country in the world, the main producer of coffee, sugarcane and citrus, and the second-largest soybean, beef and poultry producer.

Being in the slow lane is not the place to find oneself when it comes to matters of business and finance.

But, in truth, this is exactly the position that agriculture in Northern Ireland has arrived at as the industry looks towards 2023 and beyond.

Evidence of this fundamental fact can be quickly found by perusing the developments that have taken place in the Republic of Ireland over recent times.

The last six months alone have seen agreement reached on Ireland’s new CAP national plan.

This development paves the way for €9.8bn of Brussels’ support money being delivered to Irish agriculture over the next five years.

But that’s not all. The new CAP plan will also see an additional €3.9bn being made available for Pillar 2/rural development-related projects over the same period of time.

Significantly, 60% of this Tier 2 funding will come from Dublin’s national coffers. So no sign of an agri-political deficit in the case of our nearest neighbour then!

To be honest, I was staggered by the number of funding commitments made by Ireland’s farm minister Charlie McConalogue in the run up to Christmas across a wide range of arable and livestock-related issues.

A quick visit to the agriculture.ie website is all that’s required to find out the full detail of the measures concerned.

As 2022 was coming to an end most farming and food leaders in Northern Ireland had hailed the previous 12-months as a very positive period for local agriculture.

And they were right. Despite the more than significant upturn in all input costs, farm gate returns, for the most part, more than kept pace with these inflationary pressures.

As a result, our new year begins with beef and milk prices at record levels.

The weather also played its part in 2022.

Despite the summer heat wave, most farmers entered the 2022/23 feeding season with more than adequate forage stock in store.

Worthy of further note is the fact that grain growers and other arable farmers found 2022 to be a good year.

Cereal yields held up well, as did prices.

So the markets really did deliver for local farmers over the past 12 months.

And will it be case of history repeating itself in 2023? This is the big imponderable: so answers on a postcard please!

More likely, I sense, is the prospect of input costs remaining high and farm gate returns going into reverse. This trend is already apparent for cereal growers.

I referenced the Northern Ireland Protocol earlier in the piece. Isn’t it time that our politicians and farming leaders put this issue into some form of proper perspective.

Where would Northern Ireland’s dairy and sheep industries be today, had it not been for the operation of the protocol?

I get pretty tired listening people telling me that they can no longer enjoy sandwiches, sausages and bacon from their favourite supermarkets.

As far as I am aware a number of leading supermarkets are now using companies here in Northern Ireland to manufacture many of the food products they have difficulties supplying from the rest of the UK.

That sounds to me like a good news story for the local economy.

The issues pertaining to seed potato imports seems to me like a matter that could be resolved with a little bit of creative thinking.

Back in the day Northern Ireland was home to one of Northern Ireland was home to one of Europe’s most vibrant seed potato industries. So why can’t we re-visit this principle, as a matter of some priority?

Yes, there’s little doubt that the protocol needs fixing. But common sense on the part of all those involved in repairing it should get us over the line.

If this cannot be achieved, the end result could be a trade war between the UK and Europe.

And, under those circumstances, farming and food in Northern Ireland would lose out big time!

And so to climate change: it has been likened to a Sword of Damocles that now hangs over mankind as a whole.

Like all other challenges facing our agri-food economy, farmers will be in the front line when it comes to shaping an effective response.

So much for the theory: the reality, however, is somewhat different.

Fundamental change to our current farming systems will require massive investment on the part of primary producers.

But if farmers are not generating sustainable profits in the first place, then they will not have the monies available to make the commitments required of them.

All of this brings me back to the fundamental question raised at the beginning of this piece.

Three years on from the ratification of the Brexit treaty, farming in Northern Ireland finds itself slipping behind the rest of Europe from a support funding perspective.

And this trend must be reversed if local agriculture is to look forward with any degree of confidence.

Yes 2022 was a good year for farming and food in Northern Ireland.

But pinning our hopes on future market trends keeping farm gate returns at sustainable levels has the term ’folly’ written all over it.

Let’s be clear about this: the first opportunity that can be availed of by the supermarkets to bring back food prices, will be fully availed of.

Such a reality joins the very clichéd list of death and taxes.

Rumours currently abound to the effect that our farming and food leaders are set to agree the establishment of a single body that will oversee the industry’s response to climate change.

And that’s as it should be. But leaving the remit of such a body to include climate change only is not far-reaching enough.

What’s needed is an organisation that can go to government with a thoroughly worked through plan, one that identifies the full scope of the funding needed by the farming and food sectors over the next decade.

Such a process shouldn’t prove that difficult. All that’s required is for someone to go through the wish list espoused by organisations like the Ulster Farmers’ Union over the past number of years. It then becomes a job of coming-up with a commensurate budget.

For the record, I also believe that the guaranteed farm gate price principle promoted by Farmers for Action has real merit.

That organisation has called for Stormont to get up and running again as soon as possible.

They say food security can only be guaranteed when farmers are properly paid for their produce and this involves passing the Northern Ireland Farm Welfare Bill as soon as possible through Stormont.

It was policies of this nature that drove UK farming policy for many years in the wake of World War II.

So, in conclusion, I am firmly of the view that Brexit has not been a good news story for agriculture and food in Northern Ireland.

And it’s time that our politicians and farming leaders said as much in as many words.

One hundred years ago, Northern Ireland was home to vibrant ship building, linen and farming sectors.

Two of these industries have since been relegated to the history books. It would be a bad day indeed if farming and food were to follow suit.