Europe has bigger things to worry about than the UK now
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This sounded good but the spin of the event and the commitment hide the real questions about what he can and cannot achieve without going back on his pre-election commitment not to change Brexit and not to enter a customs union to allow free trade and free movement with the EU.
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It was no coincidence that Starmer chose Germany for his announcement. It follows the warm words he used at an event for European leaders in the UK to discuss Ukraine. This was just after he became prime minister and EU heads of state clearly liked what they saw in a new prime minister after years of blood letting over Brexit. This was more about divisions ion the Conservative party than actual policies, but it damaged relations with Brussels to a degree that only change of government can repair. That set the stage for the Starmer comments about a reset in relations. He made the comments in Germany, before going on to France to meet Emmanuel Macron at the opening ceremony for the Paralympics.
That meant in a single day he was able to put his message before the two leaders that remain the EU’s power brokers and drivers of policy. Ironically in this group Starmer, unlike his Conservative predecessors, is in the strongest position electorally and in terms of demanding party discipline. Starmer and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, are both centre left politicians, in power after a long period of centre right government. However there is a key difference for both Scoltz and Macron, in that both are under extreme pressure from the far right – in Germany from AFD (alternative for Germany) and in France from National Rally and Marine le Pen (formerly the National Front under her father). This means they have bigger issues to worry them than helping the UK rebuild its relationship with the EU.
In the Starmer speech there was talk of a new cooperation pact with Germany, on which officials from Berlin and London are now working to finalise it before the end of the year. It is an open secret that Starmer hopes this will be a blueprint for a wider deal with the EU. However even at this stage Brussels has reacted by making clear a deal with one member state is not a deal with an EU of 27 member states. In his comments on a co-operation pact with Germany there was little detail and it seems any agreement may be more about a strategic and defence alliance than bread and butter issues. While there has been a welcome for the talk of a reset in relations with the EU cynics are questioning how that can happen when Starmer seems to be offering nothing of substance. He said there would be no change on Brexit, no entry to a customs union or the single markets – presumably via the European Economic Area – and no change on migration. Talk of a free movement scheme for young people was also put on the back burner and there was certainly no mention of agriculture or food – despite these being central to the trading relationship between the UK and EU.
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Take away the spin and positive attitude Starmer brought to Berlin and the words of his speech could have just as readily come from a pro-Brexit Conservative prime minister. Without change on these key issues a reset will be the equivalent of making a room look better by dusting around the mess. The Brexit deal is and always has been far from perfect, but it is working after a fashion. There is a case for changing some of the detail, as the Conservatives did with the Windsor framework changes, but unless Starmer is coming to the table with an open minded approach to radical change there will be little interest from Brussels in a reset. Warm words sound good, but without substance that is all they are. It was no surprise that there was little or no reaction to the Starmer reset commitment from ardent Brexit supporters. They know that with his promise not to change anything – especially on a customs union – there is no risk to the Brexit they negotiated under Boris Johnson. That is reality, but Starmer is probably playing a long game. Hew wants to improve relations with Brussels and take the sting out Brexit. That will pave the way for a second term Labour government to enter the European Economic Area, where the UK should have been all along. Like his commitment on no tax rises, it is about finding a hook to make such a policy shift acceptable to a majority of voters.
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