January takes its name from the god Janus, who looked into the new and back to the old. There is always a feeling at the start of a new year, as to whether it will be better or worse than the year just gone.

For farmers there is a sense 2025 might prove a high water mark for many enterprises. The year brought the highest ever global prices for beef. That was reflected here, with the price of beef a talking point for consumers. Dairy prices were also strong, but by the end of the year were weakening.

Other sectors saw fewer gains in farm gate prices, but they too gained from input cost inflation being more under control than in past years. The thing over which farmers have even less control than markets – the weather – was also relatively kind in Northern Ireland, allowing us to escape the consequences of some of the weather extremes that hit parts of Europe. Pessimists – or perhaps more accurately realists – will be going into the new year accepting that things are unlikely to be as good. This is always the problem of coming off good times, knowing they are never guaranteed. Optimists will hope for more of the same and to be a farmer and accept the vulnerability to weather and markets you have to be an optimist to stay positive about the industry. It would only be the bravest of commentators that would forecast what markets will bring. Most that do so see markets softening globally, but not to a degree that they will see a crisis plunge in farming's financial fortunes.

One certainty is that few will remember entering a new year with a more uncertain geopolitical situation or with less faith in the ability of politicians to find workable solutions.

This will remain the backdrop for agriculture in 2026. If the past is a measure of the present, agriculture will remain a stable industry in troubled times as people realise the importance of food security and the dangers of depending on long supply chains and countries where policy is changed not by economics but by the whim of politicians.

This is something the EU gets in terms of agricultural policy, but sadly the UK remains in a political bubble of belief about imports of cheap food to keep consumers happy while burdening farmers with show-piece green policies. On the theme of politics the change to inheritance tax for farmers and small businesses was welcome. It was an outbreak of rare common sense and the change should have been made a long time ago. Nothing has changed to make the error now being partly corrected any different.

Higher taxes remain a hallmark of the government; for over a year it ignored pressure from the farming lobby, making the case that its IHT plan made neither moral or economic sense. It was interesting the change was slipped out by a junior minister; there was no sense the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had any regrets about the wrong-headed policy she championed and defended for more than a year. Clearly her position is one of “je ne regrette rien” so far as farmers are concerned; there was equally no statement from her boss, Keir Starmer, who has defended a bad decision for a long time. This is surprising for someone who desperately needs some good publicity to save his political skin. This leaves two questions about IHT as we enter the new year. The first is why the announcement was rushed out just as everyone had switched off their computers for Christmas. The only logical answer to that is backbench pressure from the close to 100 Labour MPs representing rural constituencies, having grabbed them from Conservatives in 2024. They were not prepared to spend the Christmas break defending the indefensible over IHT.

This confirms that the government is driven by back bench opinion and this time it suited farmers. The other question is whether the new £2.5 million figure could be increased to a more realistic figure around £5 million that would solve the problem.

This is a huge new year challenge for the farming lobby and one where success is not guaranteed; that said they have already won against the odds and could yet do so again. What they need to press for is a higher threshold for family farms and no concessions beyond that for anyone who has been using farm land ownership solely as a way to avoid inheritance tax.