Northern Ireland weekly market report - 16 June 2025

16 June 2025

Grains

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25)

UK feed wheat futures fluctuated below the 20-day moving average again last week (Friday–Friday) and moved closer to the recent support level (£175/t). The RSI decreased from 49 to 46, reflecting the lack of significant market momentum.

Market drivers

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) slightly decreased by £0.20/t (0.1%) last week (06–13 June), closing at £179.85/t on Friday. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) fell by 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. UK domestic feed wheat futures showed limited downside last week, partly due to the weakening of sterling against the euro.

Wheat futures came under pressure due to improving crop conditions in the US and France, as well as the approaching main harvest season in the Northern Hemisphere. However, wheat futures partially offset weekly losses last Friday, as some weather risks remain and the USDA's WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report showed a decrease in global wheat stocks for the 2025/26 season.

We have recently seen some increased activity from major importers. Last week, for example, Algeria and Tunisia tendered to purchase milling wheat.

Stratégie Grains increased its EU wheat production forecast by 0.9 Mt to 130.7 Mt, compared to figures from the previous month. Wheat production is expected to reach record levels in Spain and Romania. In northern Europe (Scandinavia, Poland and the Baltic States), the return of rainfall in the second half of May stabilised growing conditions for wheat and barley crops.

Trade association Coceral also increased its forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union and the UK this year, increasing it from 137.2 Mt in March to 143.1 Mt.

The Rosario Grains Exchange in Argentina has lowered its forecast for wheat production in the 2025/26 season to 20.7 Mt, down from 21.0 Mt, due to flooding caused by recent heavy rainfall.

Government data shows India had 36.9 Mt of wheat in stock as of 01 June, up from 29.9 Mt last year. In India, a record wheat crop is expected in the 2025/26 season, which, when combined with higher stocks, could stimulate exports.

Meanwhile, maize prices came under pressure last week from strong crop conditions in the US. However, delays to the second-crop maize harvest in Brazil, proposals for higher US biofuel mandates and higher crude oil prices helped limit losses Friday-Friday.

Rapeseed

Paris rapeseed futures in £/t (Nov-25)

Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures (in £/t) climbed above the recent resistance level (£420/t) last week (6 June–13 June). The RSI rose notably to 63 from 49 in the previous week, signalling stronger market momentum. Should prices hold at Friday's close or higher, they could face a new resistance level at £430/t.

Global oilseed markets lost ground in the middle of last week but had more than recovered by the end of the week.

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose €8.25/t (+1.7%) to €499.75/t, supported by strength across the oilseed complex. Chicago soyabean (Nov-25) and soyabean oil (Dec-25) futures increased by 1.7% and 6.3% respectively. Winnipeg canola (Nov-25) also gained 4.4%.

Geopolitical tensions supported prices. On Friday, Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, prompting retaliatory airstrikes. This escalation raised concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies from the region, pushing crude oil prices higher and, in turn, supporting oilseed markets.

In the US, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed higher biofuel blending targets for the next two years. This move is expected to increase demand for vegetable oils for biofuel production, providing additional support to oilseed prices.

In Canada, tight supplies of the old crop canola (rapeseed) and dry weather concerns continue to underpin prices. However, recent and forecast rainfall in key regions like Saskatchewan and Alberta may help ease crop stress in the coming weeks.

Trade body Coceral kept its 2025 rapeseed production forecast for the EU and UK at 20.0 Mt, up from 17.9 Mt in 2024. This increase is due to higher areas in Romania and Bulgaria, plus improved yields in France, and Germany.

In contrast, APK-Inform cut its 2025 production forecast for Ukraine by 0.20 Mt for rapeseed and 0.50 Mt for sunflower seed due to adverse weather.

The USDA’s June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations for soyabeans, keeping the 2025/26 production forecast unchanged and raising global ending stocks by 0.97 Mt.

Meanwhile, the outlook for ample soyabean supplies from South America limited gains. Conab revised Brazil’s 2024/25 soyabean output upwards by 1.26 Mt to 169.6 Mt (USDA: 169.0 Mt), while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased Argentina’s harvest estimate by 0.30 Mt to 50.3 Mt (USDA: 48.5 Mt).