Odds still favour a Brexit trade deal - but clock is ticking

According to Michael Haverty, a partner and research consultant with the Leicestershire-based Andersons Centre, London and Brussels have until the end of October to sort out their trade differences.

He said: “We now know that the transition period must end on December 31st this year. So we have to work everything back from this date. Assuming a trade deal of sorts is reached, it will take two months for the EU institutions and the UK government to ratify the details. So this means that the talking must stop at the end of October.”

Irrespective of whatever trading arrangements are arrived at on January 1st next Haverty believes that the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol, arrived at will ensure the tariff and quota free movement of goods on the island of Ireland. This will come as tremendously positive news for Northern Ireland’s dairy and lamb producers. One third of the Northern Ireland’s milk pool is processed in the Republic while up to 100,000 lambs are exported south for processing annually.

Haverty believes that, given the now obvious time restrictions, the chances of an all embracing Brexit trade deal being arrived at are remote. Rather a more restricted arrangement is now on the cards.

Under these circumstances, the impact of Non Tariff Measure (NTM) costs becomes significant. Within some sectors, these could amount to 12% of the value put on the goods to be exported out of the UK. Additional costs of this nature could really hurt the very important trade in lambs between Great Britain and France. Here in Northern Ireland, however, free trading conditions with France would hopefully remain in place, courtesy of the free movement of goods scenario operating on the island. The consequent benefits of this scenario for local sheep farmers are obvious.

While Northern Ireland could still enjoy a win:win scenario, courtesy of Brexit, the same cannot be said if the UK strikes a deal with the United States.

According to Michael Haverty, America’s poultry, pork and beef producers can undercut their UK counterparts by 20%, 30% and 40% respectively in terms of production costs.

Given these circumstances the need for any future trade deal between the US and the UK to recognise parity of production standards become obvious.

DUP Westminster Agriculture Spokesperson Carla Lockhart MP has again stressed the need for the Government to protect food production standards, ensuring UK farmers are not disadvantaged by future trade deals.

She said: “Concern still remains that through the Agriculture Bill or Trade Bill, we still have no legislative protection of the high standards of food, food production, animal welfare and environmental protection we maintain here in the UK.

“This leaves our farmers and food producers potentially exposed to the danger of being undermined and undercut by imports resulting from free trade deals. Such an outcome would be wholly unacceptable.”