Successive governments have taken food security for granted

That however depends on taking a global perspective. Sadly, in the UK, we have had successive governments that have not got that message. Instead they adopt an ostrich pose, ignoring reality to pursue a green agenda no longer in vogue elsewhere. Food security is taken for granted and farmers are made to feel guilty for being efficient food producers, who for generations have delivered a thriving, balanced countryside. This makes it refreshing when a global report on the future decade for global agriculture comes to more realistic conclusions. That report is from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which represents the world’s main economies, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). From now to the mid-2030s it forecasts growth in demand for food, led by meat, and an increase in agricultural productivity to meet that demand. In contrast to green dogma from less professional think tanks this is refreshing and a confidence boost for agriculture. It is a reminder that farmers, regardless of scale, still have the abilities needed to feed the world. They can respond positively to the economic opportunities created by a growing middle class with money to spend and a desire to broaden their diets. The report suggests agricultural production will grow by 14 per cent over the coming decade. At a time when most industries are facing the reality of a flat global economy that is a positive prospect, because it is in response to growing demand from people with money to pay for the lifestyle changes they want. The report also suggests this growth will see increased demand for meat, particularly poultry and pork. It says the growth in production will come from agriculture using productivity tools to grow without adding significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. This is a better outcome for the environment than would be the case from bringing more virgin land into production. It underlines that science and productivity are positive forces and not the threats too many green lobby groups, and by extension politicians, deem them to be. Going right back to Malthus and his claim that population growth would lead to starvation, agriculture has always proved this thinking wrong by embracing science and delivering greater productivity. Now in 2025 the OECD/FAO report again confirms science holds the answer to balancing the need for more output, with green outcomes and economic success. All in all this is a positive view of the future for agriculture, but inevitably there is a “but” in the conclusions. The report says delivering on agricultural growth in the places best suited to deliver that via climatic advantages and expertise depends on a “rules based” trading system. This is of course the exact opposite to what Donald Trump and his administration is seeking to deliver with the imposition of tariffs as a political rather than as an economic tool. This tears up the “rules based” system and ignores the World Trade Organisation, which the United States played a major role in building up for decades as a way to deliver fair trading and economic growth. Over tariffs, Trump is displaying a lack to logic and the arrogance that only made him a successful business titan in his own imagination, rather than in any genuine accounting results. He is adamant, for now, that he will impose 30 per cent tariffs on the EU at the start of August, but wisely the EU is not responding in a way that would deliver the political grandstanding he loves back home. He needs this, because it hides the disaster tariffs are for US businesses and American consumers. In agriculture he has created prime new markets for other countries in once key markets for American farm exports. It is farmers there and not Washington politicians paying the price for this ill-judged policy. For now all the EU is saying is that it wants a deal, while making clear that whatever the US ultimately does the EU will respond with tariffs that are equally or more damaging for the US, because they will be well thought out and targeted. In this the EU is following the advice of a wiser and better respected Trump predecessor, Theodore Roosevelt, who said diplomacy was about “speaking softly, but carrying a big stick”. The OECD report confirms the potential that is out there for global agriculture. It would be a disgrace if Trump’s antics were allowed to frustrate that optimism.​