Trump is eyeing peace prize as he cobbles deal with Putin

Many of the problems farming has faced – from the explosion in fertiliser prices to inflation in food prices for consumers – go back to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This destabilised the entire global food market. That was not surprising, given that Ukraine used to be described as Europe’s bread basket. Its soils are fantastic, its farms well managed and efficient, and despite the war much of that productivity has continued. Trump wants a deal in Ukraine for many reasons, most of which have nothing to do with stability in Europe or indeed the fate of the people in Ukraine.

He sees success in brokering a deal as a commercial proposition for American businesses he believes could exploit opportunities in Ukraine and gain from an easing of sanctions on Russia.

Above all he sees it as the route to a Nobel peace prize. He has always been insanely jealous of Barack Obama winning this, reflecting Trump’s thin skin and massive ego. All decisions he takes are about what is good for him and his view of what might make America great again, if its rust-belt industries can be kick-started back to global competitiveness. Time will tell where this goes. Success will be no easier than his vision of making Gaza the “new Riviera” of the Middle East. It is not about Trump and his pal Putin cutting a deal.

Europe, in the shape of the EU and the UK, have a massive role in this negotiation, since they face the greatest threat from Putin’s ambitions to restore the power of the old Soviet Union he worked for in his KGB days.

The people of Ukraine, which have bravely resisted a superpower, cannot be ignored. They know they will lose territory to Putin, but that can only be acceptable in the context of a binding and lasting peace deal. This must see Moscow permanently curtailing its threats to Europe. That is a big ask, meaning the odds are against Trump’s plan and his Nobel peace prize ambitions. But if, to paraphrase WB Yeats, peace does come dripping slow what could this mean for agriculture in Europe. For Ukraine it would unleash the power of its still massive agricultural industry.

The reopening of Black Sea ports on a full commercial basis would see grain exports returning to normal. These would all be positive outcomes, but for Europe it would bring some difficult decisions. As part of the support package for Ukraine it has had its agricultural exports treated in the same way as if it were an EU member state, giving Ukraine tariff free access to Europe.

This has destabilised markets in neighbouring countries, forcing the EU to step in with generous aid packages to prevent criticism of its policy towards Ukraine. If stability returns questions will have to be asked as to whether, under those conditions, that special treatment is fair for farmers in Europe given that Ukrainian grain imports last year left unsold stocks on EU farms as far away as the north of France. Zoom the focus out a bit further and this brings in what might happen with Russia and whether it will be “rewarded” with an easing of sanctions.

This would seem wrong since Russia was the aggressor and anything it secures via a Trump, as opposed to European-driven initiative, would be a reward for aggression. Just as there are casualties of war, there are casualties of peace and Russia cannot expect to return to the international stage with all forgiven and forgotten.

If however there is an easing of sanctions the EU might again have access to cheaper fertilisers from Russia. There are few things that could do more to drive down the cost base of agriculture. There is also the possibility that Russia would again become available to the EU as an export market. In the past it was a vital market for countries close to the Russian border, particularly for fruit and vegetables. It was also capable of absorbing surpluses in Europe of major commodities, including beef, pigmeat and dairy. We are a long way from change, but if and when that comes it could rock global agriculture in the way it was rocked by the initial Russian invasion.