Cereal supply and demand in the UK

In other words, total availability exceeds the attributable end destinations for the grain.

UK wheat supply is made up of wheat held in store at the start of the season, production and imports.

At the end of the season one should be able to account for where this wheat ends up, either as domestic demand, exports or ending stocks.

But as many of these aspects are based on surveys and estimates, AHDB analysts don’t expect the totals to match.

In short, they expect a gap or a residual for unaccounted grain.

While there are areas of uncertainty, these estimates still provide valuable insights into supply and demand for the whole industry. And having a residual provides more transparency over the limitations of the estimates.

For the 2025/26 season, the estimated residual is larger than recent years at 794 Kt, equating to 6% of total demand.

This residual suggests that one or more of the surveys or estimates didn’t fully capture what happened last season.

It is thought that the mostly likely explanations for the larger residual in 2025/26 are a combination of:

Production in 2025 being lower than reported

End of season on-farm stocks were higher than estimated

Demand from July 2025 to June 2026 was higher than had been estimated

All of these were likely affected by the extreme weather over the past year, adding to the uncertainty over the accuracy of what was captured in the data for the season.

Production

There have been sizeable changes to our industry and shifts in cropping in recent years as a result of falls in profitability, variable weather and policy changes.

In addition, extreme weather led to highly variable but on average historically low yields in 2025.

All of which, make it harder to estimate the crop.

In December, Defra estimated the 2025 UK wheat crop at 11.958 Mt, of which, 10.677 Mt was produced in England.

Like all surveys, the production survey may not fully capture its target data, in this case, the crop size.

One way to look at the potential variation in the crop size is the Confidence Interval (CI).

A CI is a statistic that gives a range of values we can be fairly sure the true value lies within.

The CI for the 2025 English wheat crop was 226 Kt, suggesting a range of 10.452 – 10.903 Mt.

This would not fully account for the residual, but if the actual crop was towards the lower end of the CI range in England, this would be contributing to the wheat residual.

Stocks

Similarly, there are CIs for on-farm stocks held on farms in England and Wales at the end of June.

Defra estimates a sharp, 46%, year-on-year fall in these stocks to 351 Kt. This echoes with market comments from earlier this year, that English supplies were tightening in the latter stages of the season and wheat was getting harder to source.

The CI for this figure was 95 Kt, and suggests a potential range of 256 – 446 Kt.

Even if the stocks were towards the upper end of range, it would still mean a historically low stock level.

This would still align with industry sentiment on the tightness in stocks whilst also accounting for some of the residual.

Demand

The amount of grain fed-on-farm is estimated based on industry insight rather than observable data sources. Therefore, it is subject to different uncertainties than the surveys.

This aspect of the balance sheet is a known ‘unknown’.

While there are factors supporting a higher volume of grain being fed-on-farm, there are also limiting factors.

Meanwhile, AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge surveys shows how grass growth was badly affected in the early months of the grain marketing season for a panel of dairy farms across GB.

As a result of the lower grass growth, forage needed to be fed early, and stocks reportedly ran low over the winter.

However, the numbers of cattle, pigs and sheep reported by Defra reduce the outlook for grain fed-on-farm.

Also, falls in the UK farm gate milk prices last autumn likely reduced the incentive to supplemental feed beyond what was needed.

In addition, pig net margins have reduced over the season (July 2025 to June 2026) providing a mixed picture on the implications for feed demand.

Moreover, changes to the livestock sectors over recent years include increased integration in the pig sector and larger cattle finishing units. While these may have also contributed, the resulting changes for feed are likely to be more incremental, rather than driving the large increase in the residual seen this year.

Next steps

AHDB will continue to work with Defra and the industry to further understand the market with an aim to improve the data and broader insights which feed into the balance sheets.

This is achieved through the Audit Function Group, which meets several times a year.

Barley

According to AHDB, exports stood at 479 Kt for the 2025/26 season. This is down 227 Kt year on year, and 29 Kt more than May’s estimate. Imports for the full season stood at 213 Kt, 23 Kt larger than May’s estimate and 20 Kt lower than the previous year.

Barley availability for 2025/26 was estimated at 7.859 Mt, 628 Kt below 2024/25 figures due to lower production.

Meanwhile, barley usage for 2025/26 totalled 6.040 Mt, down from 6.505 Mt in 2024/25. This is 79 Kt lower than May due to a reduction in animal feed consumption. The downward trend in human and industrial consumption has continued, with figures 19% lower than 2024/25.

Barley closing stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 1.337 Mt, down 70 Kt from May’s estimate, but 58 Kt higher than year earlier levels.

Maize

Imports stood at 2.395 Mt in 2025/26, up 205 Kt on May’s estimate but 708 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels and back to historically typical levels. Full season exports were 200 Kt, 10 Kt higher than May and 19 Kt higher than 2024/25.

Maize availability for 2024/25 totalled 2.592 Mt, up 205 Kt from May’s estimate and 712 Kt year on year.

Full season domestic consumption is estimated at 2.072 Mt, up 46 Kt from May’s estimate, and 651 Kt lower than the previous year’s levels.

Maize end of season stocks stand at 198 Kt, just 2 Kt higher year-on-year and 28 Kt more than estimated in May.

Oats

Exports of oats reached 93 Kt in 2025/26, 3 Kt higher than estimated in May, and 30 Kt more than in 2024/25. Imports of oats were 5 Kt higher than 2024/25 figures at 19 Kt, up 4 Kt from May’s estimate.

Total availability of the grain in 2025/26 was 1.122 Mt, similar to May’s estimate and up 28 Kt on the year.

Full season usage of oats stood at 875 Kt; this is down 67 Kt from May’s estimate and 15 Kt on 2024/25. Stronger milling demand year-on-year mostly offset a decline in animal feed consumption.

End of season stocks for 2025/26 stand at 155 Kt, up 68 Kt from May’s estimate and 14 Kt up on the previous year.

Latest prices

According to AHDB, November 2026 UK feed wheat futures ended last week (Friday, October 16) at £205.00/t: £1.00/t lower than the previous Friday.

Meanwhile, the rise in Paris futures offered support to UK futures, as the UK-Paris relationship often impacts the attractiveness of imports into the UK.

However, a rise in sterling against the euro still led to the small week-on-week decline for UK futures.

On October 16, the pound reached €1.1850, up from €1.1798 a week earlier and 16-month high.

While Chicago grain futures fell to their lowest levels since mid-August last week, European futures fared better.

Potential export demand for European wheat supported Paris wheat futures. Higher crude oil prices, the war in Ukraine and a weak euro against the US dollar also factored.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures reached $109.86/barrel on Friday, its highest price since 19 May.

However, a reported uptick in Russian exports from September through the Baltic ports limited the price gains.

Dec-2026 Paris wheat futures gained 0.7% Friday-Friday.

Algeria bought between 660 Kt and 720 Kt in a tender last week, according to trader reports. Reports indicate that the total could include some Romanian and/or Bulgarian wheat.

In contrast, a strong US dollar and better weather in the US for harvesting maize and planting winter wheat crop pushed Chicago prices lower. Selling by speculative traders added to the falls.

December 2026 Chicago maize futures fell 1.2% last week, with December 2026 Chicago wheat down 1.6%.

Over the coming days, the conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East and harvest reports are likely to influence prices.

Forecasts show drier weather again for key US maize areas. If confirmed, this could mean more harvest progress and pressure on prices.

Harvest is also underway in Australia. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia increased its forecasts for wheat and barley output in the state after mild weather. But the forecasts remain 18% and 11% respectively below last year’s high levels.

Rain has delayed the start of the wheat harvest in northern Argentina; the moisture could benefit developing barley crops. Low sunlight levels remain a watch point for all crops.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports maize planting is well ahead of average, with over a third of the commercial area planted by October 14.