Saturday comment: Recovery in world milk prices is at least six months off
The large numbers of dairy farmers attending the 2025 Royal Ulster Winter Fair were told in very clear terms that any real recovery in global dairy markets could be at least six months in the offing.
And it really will be a case of matters getting worse before they improve. All international markets operate on the basis of the push and pull created by supply and demand.
As a consequence, milk production levels around the world willhave to back quite significantly in order to allow farm gate prices recover.
Significantly, the current winter milk bonuses on offer from all the dairies is shielding local farmers from the full brunt of the ferociously negative forces that are impacting on global dairy markets right now.


And, of course the current strength of the beef market is also helping to maintain all-impoetnat cash flow levels on dairy farms.
So, in reality, maters could be a lot worse.
However, the New Year will see this scenario shifting dramatically with farm gate milk prices here dropping below cost of production levels at some stage during Quarter One of 2026.
Meanwhile the halls at Balmoral Park found themselves totally devoid of cattle for the first time in the history of the Winter Fair.
Let’s hope this will be one-off scenario.
Mind you the tremendous turnout of visitors and trade exhibitors combined to make the event an outstanding success.
Balmoral Show 2026 is the next farming event of note to be hosted by the Royal Ulster Agricultural Society. Let’s hope by then that systems will be in place that allow for the normalisation of cattle movements across the island of Ireland, irrespective of the Bluetongue risk that presents itself into the future.
And there is genuine hope to be found in this regard. Two years ago, countries in North West Europe, including France, Germany and Belgium, found themselves in the very teeth of a Bluetongue storm.
However, it is worthy of note that the dairy sectors across this entire region has bounced back successfully, both in terms of milk output and the general health of its cattle population.
It is important that next year sees Balmoral Show and the Royal Ulster Winter Fair taking place with their normal complement of livestock classes.
And this means having cattle of the highest calibre from across the island of Ireland going through their paces in the various competition rings.